Since 2008, the single most successful strategy for asset allocators has been to overweigh U.S. assets and the U.S. dollar. Now, however, a number of key indicators suggest very strongly that this latest cycle of U.S. performance is ending:

  • The relative valuation of U.S. stocks is as high as it was at peak of the Internet bubble
  • The U.S. premium is inconsistent with long-term earnings expectations
  • U.S. assets fare poorly in periods of reflation, bitter partisanship and large deficits

Indeed, economic momentum is already shifting from the U.S. to Europe and emerging markets, writes Vincent Deluard in his new report, A Secular Turning Point: The End of the Great U.S. Cycle. In it, he argues that international assets will perform relatively strongly (as they did from 2002 to 2008) in the emerging cycle, while U.S. performance declines.

Read Vincent’s analysis of how this turnabout will affect global markets – from securities to commodities to currencies – by downloading a free copy of the paper today. Fill in and submit the form below, and you’ll then receive an email containing a link for downloading the paper.

Vincent Deluard, CFA, is the newest member of the Market Intelligence team within the BD Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. A prolific market commentator who’s often quoted in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, Forbes Magazine, and Barron’s, Mr. Deluard earned the Euromoney Padraic Fallon Editorial Prize for his in-depth study of the investment opportunities offered by the European debt crisis in 2013. Prior to joining INTL FCStone Financial Inc., Vincent served as Europe Strategist for Ned Davis Research Group, where he authored weekly publications on European markets, and designed proprietary trading models that combined fundamental, technical and macro indicators to identify major investment themes and market trends.

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A Secular Turning Point:
The End of the Great U.S. Cycle

By Global Macro Strategist Vincent Deluard

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